Bitcoin traded near $81,500 on Friday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 policy meeting, where futures markets price a 91.7% probability that the central bank holds rates steady, according to CME FedWatch.
Summary
- The Federal Open Market Committee meets October 27–28, with the decision due at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28.
- CME FedWatch prices a 91.7% chance of a hold, keeping the target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
- Bitcoin trades near $81,500, with $80,000 the level traders are watching into the decision.
- A $11 billion Bitcoin options expiry follows two days later, on October 30.
The Fed’s communications blackout begins on Saturday, leaving the market without official guidance in the final days before the decision. Attention has shifted to what Chair Jerome Powell signals for the December meeting.
A hold is priced, a December move is the question
The central bank lifted its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% at its September meeting. Odds of another increase in October briefly rose to about 34% after September inflation printed at 3.7%, before fading as officials emphasized a data-dependent path.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said this month that the Fed should consider “front-loading” rate moves if inflation proves persistent. Powell has not committed the committee to a timeline, and the September Beige Book described business price pass-through in hawkish terms.
Bitcoin enters decision week near $80,000 support
Bitcoin changed hands around $81,500–$81,800 on Friday, recovering modestly after dipping below $82,000 during Thursday’s equity-led selloff. The asset has tracked technology shares closely this week, and the $80,000 area marks the nearest widely watched support.
The decision lands in a crowded week for the asset. A Bitcoin options expiry worth about $11 billion follows on October 30, two days after the Fed announcement, with positioning concentrated in $95,000 calls and downside strikes at $75,000 and below.
What traders are watching
With a hold nearly fully priced, the market reaction is more likely to turn on Powell’s press conference language than on the decision itself. Any shift in how officials describe December — where bank forecasts are split between another increase and an extended pause — would set the tone for risk assets into November.
The ECB and the Bank of Japan also meet next week, adding to a schedule that could move the dollar and, with it, Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
